Well for starters, the stock market is a predictor of the future—probably the best one we've got. The reason for that is because there's real money on the line, and so investors have to dig deep, get the best data, be the first one to know and put in real effort to realize a gain in the markets. Of course that involves being early, or at the very least not being the last one to hold the bag. Buy the rumor sell the news: if you're getting in at the news, most likely you are the last one holding the bag, and we've all been there.
NVDA crushes earnings but falls 10%?
Inflation is way cooler than expected but the market crashes on the number?
A groundbreaking drug is approved by the FDA, then the stock falls 40%?
Does this make sense? No, absolutely not. But, it's the world we live in. The market predicts the future.
So, how to solve this? Well, what if you could get alerts on the percentage likelihood of that merger going through, that drug being approved by the FDA, or NVDA absolutely smashing earnings. You'd never be the last one holding the bag, but instead you'd be riding the trend—the rumor—the whole way up right along with the institutions. Of course you wouldn't need to sell at the top, because you're already at a stellar gain.
This is the promise of prediction markets and why I consistently say that they are the #1 market indicator that we have today. The markets I referenced are stellar examples of how to get real information that counts, because there's real money on the line. Will AAPL hit $300 by the end of the month, will NVDA hit $210 by the end of today, will TSLA hit $1,000 by the end of the year? These are just some examples of direct price markets that no one has ever had access to before.
With adoption ever increasing, these markets will only get more accurate over time as volume and liquidity increase. This earnings season alone, there were over 200 stocks that had Beat or Miss markets associated with their earnings outcomes. Combine that with over 14,000 markets between Kalshi and Polymarket, it's truly the new best indicator.