Disclaimer

Effective Date: March 25, 2026

Resolution Sources

The resolution sources for the price markets on the charts will differ. With that being said, as of March 2026, the 5 minute, 15 minute and 4 hour markets use Chainlink, while the 1 hour, daily and monthly markets use Binance. The yearly markets vary with some using Binance and some using their own chain. Polymarket.com will have all of the resolution sources. We do not offer trading or brokerage services at this time, but if you do use the price markets for trading on other platforms, it is very important that you understand their are differences in resolution sources. While these differences may be subtle, it is still important to know, especially if trading with leverage.

No Investment Advice

Exchange Alpha is a financial data platform for informational and educational purposes only. We do NOT provide financial, investment, trading, or other professional advice.

The information, charts, data, predictions, and analysis provided on www.exchangealpha.com (the "Website") are not intended to be, and do not constitute:

  • Financial advice
  • Investment advice
  • Trading advice or recommendations
  • Tax, legal, or accounting advice
  • An offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities, financial instruments, or investments

You should NOT rely on any information on this Website as a substitute for professional financial advice from a qualified advisor.

For Informational Purposes Only

All content on our Website, including but not limited to:

  • Stock and cryptocurrency price charts
  • Prediction market data and probabilities
  • Market analysis and commentary
  • Aggregated information and explanations

...is provided solely for general information and educational purposes.

Any opinions, forecasts, or commentary are subject to change at any time without notice and should not be considered personalized investment advice.

No Guarantee of Accuracy

While we strive to provide accurate and up-to-date information:

WE MAKE NO REPRESENTATIONS OR WARRANTIES REGARDING:

  • The accuracy, completeness, or timeliness of any data
  • The reliability of any information from third-party sources
  • The availability or uninterrupted access to our Website
  • That any particular trading strategy will be profitable

Market data is provided by third-party sources and may contain errors, delays, or omissions.

Trading and Investment Risks

TRADING AND INVESTING INVOLVE SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS.

By using our Website, you acknowledge and understand that:

  1. Past Performance Is Not Indicative of Future Results: Historical data, back-tested results, and hypothetical performance do not guarantee future profits.

  2. You May Lose Money: Trading stocks, cryptocurrencies, derivatives, and other financial instruments carries a high level of risk and may result in the loss of some or all of your invested capital.

  3. High-Risk Products: Leveraged products, derivatives, cryptocurrencies, and prediction markets are particularly high-risk and may not be suitable for all investors.

  4. Do Your Own Research: You should conduct your own research and due diligence and consult with qualified financial professionals before making any investment decisions.

  5. Risk Capital Only: You should only invest money that you can afford to lose.

No Brokerage or Trading Services

Exchange Alpha does NOT:

  • Execute trades or transactions
  • Hold or manage user funds
  • Provide brokerage services
  • Facilitate the buying or selling of securities, cryptocurrencies, or prediction market contracts

We are a data display platform only. If you wish to trade, you must use a separate licensed broker or exchange.

Prediction Market Data

What Are Prediction Markets?

Prediction markets are platforms where people collectively forecast the future by trading on the outcomes of real-world events.

Unlike traditional stock markets where you trade shares of companies, prediction markets allow you to trade contracts based on whether specific events will happen. Think of it as forecasting the future, with market prices reflecting the collective prediction of all participants.

How Prediction Markets Work

Market Prices = Probabilities

The price of shares in a prediction market represents the current probability of an event occurring:

  • If "YES" shares trade at $0.74, the market estimates a 74% probability of the event happening
  • If "YES" shares trade at $0.18, the market estimates an 18% probability
  • Prices are always between $0.00 and $1.00 (or 0% and 100%)

Example Market: "Will SpaceX IPO before 2027?"

  • YES shares trading at $0.74 = Market believes 74% chance of IPO
  • NO shares trading at $0.26 = Market believes 26% chance of no IPO
  • YES + NO prices always equal $1.00

Making Money in Prediction Markets

If you believe the market is wrong about the odds, you can profit:

  1. Buy shares if you think probability is higher than the market price

    • Example: Buy YES at $0.18 if you believe the true probability is 40%
    • If the event happens, each share pays $1.00
    • Your profit: $1.00 - $0.18 = $0.82 per share

  2. Sell shares early based on new information

    • Unlike traditional bets, you can exit your position before the event resolves
    • Prices change continuously as news breaks and circumstances change
    • Lock in profits or cut losses by selling at current market price

What Markets Cover

Prediction markets allow trading on diverse topics:

Politics & Governance:

  • Elections, legislative outcomes, regulatory decisions
  • Court cases, policy changes, political appointments

Economics & Finance:

  • Recession probabilities, unemployment rates, interest rate movements
  • Inflation forecasts, GDP growth, economic indicators

Technology & Business:

  • Company milestones (Tesla deliveries, Netflix subscribers, IPOs)
  • Tech innovations (AI developments, product launches)
  • Cryptocurrency events and regulatory decisions

Sports & Entertainment:

  • Game outcomes, championship winners, MVP predictions
  • Awards shows (Oscars, Grammys, Emmys)
  • Box office performance, streaming metrics

Science & Environment:

  • Weather events, natural disasters
  • Climate change impacts, environmental milestones
  • Scientific discoveries and research outcomes

Why Prediction Markets Are Often Accurate

Research shows prediction markets frequently outperform expert predictions, polls, and pundits because:

Financial Incentives = Truth-Seeking

  • Participants have "skin in the game" - real money at risk
  • Traders are highly motivated to find accurate information
  • Poor predictions result in financial losses

Collective Wisdom

  • Markets aggregate knowledge from diverse participants
  • Traders synthesize news, polls, data, and expert opinions
  • Information from thousands of sources condensed into one price

Real-Time Updates

  • Market prices adjust instantly to breaking news
  • Unlike polls published days after events, markets react in seconds
  • Continuous trading ensures odds always reflect latest information

No Institutional Bias

  • Unlike media or polling organizations, markets almost always have no agenda
  • Prices are purely driven by participants' beliefs
  • "Put your money where your mouth is" principle ensures honesty

Our Display of Prediction Market Data

This data should NOT be interpreted as:

  • ✗ Factual statements or guarantees of future outcomes
  • ✗ Expert predictions or professional financial analysis
  • ✗ Investment recommendations or trading advice
  • ✗ Statistical certainties or scientific forecasts
  • ✗ Endorsements by Exchange Alpha of any particular outcome
  • ✗ Verified information - markets can be wrong

Important Limitations:

  1. Markets Can Be Wrong: Prediction markets reflect participant beliefs, not truth. They have been inaccurate on major events.

  2. Volatility: Market probabilities can swing dramatically based on new information, rumors, or large trades.

  3. Manipulation Risk: Large traders or coordinated groups can sometimes influence market prices, especially in low-liquidity markets.

  4. Liquidity Constraints: Smaller markets may have few participants, making prices less reliable and subject to wider spreads.

  5. No Guarantee of Past Performance: Even markets with strong historical accuracy can fail to predict future events correctly.

  6. Information Asymmetry: Some traders may have access to better information, creating unfair advantages.

  7. Regulatory Uncertainty: Prediction market rules and availability vary by jurisdiction and can change.

Regulatory Status & Compliance

Prediction markets operate under different regulatory frameworks:

  • Kalshi: CFTC-regulated Designated Contract Market (DCM) in the United States
  • Polymarket: Recently acquired CFTC-licensed derivatives exchange (QCEX) for U.S. operations; operates globally

Important Legal Considerations:

Prediction markets may be classified as:

  • Derivatives or futures contracts (CFTC-regulated in U.S.)
  • Gambling or gaming products (subject to gambling laws in some jurisdictions)
  • Restricted or prohibited activities in certain countries

You are solely responsible for:

  • Understanding and complying with prediction market laws in your jurisdiction
  • Determining whether prediction market trading is legal where you live
  • Complying with tax obligations on any prediction market gains
  • Verifying the regulatory status of platforms before trading

Exchange Alpha does NOT:

  • Operate, facilitate, or provide access to prediction markets
  • Verify the legality of prediction markets in your jurisdiction
  • Provide legal or tax advice regarding prediction market activities
  • Endorse or recommend any prediction market platform

To trade on prediction markets, you must visit Kalshi (kalshi.com) or Polymarket (polymarket.com) directly.

Alert System

Exchange Alpha provides market alerts through email, push notifications, and other delivery channels. While we strive to deliver alerts as quickly as possible, our alert system is not guaranteed to be instantaneous or always up to date.

You acknowledge and understand that:

  • Earnings alerts may not arrive at the exact moment a company reports its earnings. There may be a delay between when a company publicly releases its results and when our system detects and delivers the alert to you.

  • Macroeconomic alerts may not arrive at the exact moment a government agency publishes economic data. Processing and delivery delays can occur between the official release and your notification.

  • IPO alerts may not arrive at the exact moment a company begins trading on a public exchange. There may be a lag between the IPO event and when our system triggers an alert.

  • News alerts may not always be delivered in real time. Events may unfold faster than our system can detect and distribute notifications.

  • Early alerts: Based on how our system works, you may receive alerts before an event has officially resolved. Alerts are triggered by market signals and probability thresholds, not by confirmed outcomes. An alert does not mean an event has definitively occurred — it means our system has detected a high likelihood based on available market data.

Alert delays may occur due to:

  • Processing time between event occurrence and detection by our systems
  • Third-party data provider delays
  • Network latency or server load
  • Push notification service delays (Apple Push Notification service, email providers)
  • Your device being offline, in Do Not Disturb mode, or otherwise unable to receive notifications

YOU SHOULD NOT RELY SOLELY ON OUR ALERT SYSTEM FOR TIME-SENSITIVE TRADING OR INVESTMENT DECISIONS. Our alerts are provided as a convenience and informational tool only. You are responsible for independently monitoring markets and verifying any information received through our alerts before acting on it.

We are not liable for any losses, missed opportunities, or damages resulting from delayed, missed, or inaccurate alerts.

Third-Party Data Sources

We display data from third-party providers who retain ownership of their data. We are not responsible for:

  • Errors or inaccuracies in third-party data
  • Delays or interruptions in data feeds
  • Changes to data provider terms or availability
  • Actions taken by third-party platforms

Real-Time vs. Delayed Data

Our Website may display both real-time and delayed market data:

  • Real-Time Data: Current market prices with minimal delay (typically less than 1 second)
  • Delayed Data: Market prices delayed by 15 minutes or more

We do not guarantee that data is real-time even when labeled as such. Data feeds may experience:

  • Technical delays or interruptions
  • Network latency
  • Provider outages or maintenance
  • Throttling or rate limiting

Data Provider Attribution

Our prediction market data comes from:

  • Prediction Market Data: Kalshi, Polymarket

We do not modify, verify, or validate data from these sources. All data is provided "as is" from the respective providers.

Hypothetical and Back-Tested Results

Any hypothetical or back-tested performance results shown on our Website have inherent limitations:

  • They are prepared with the benefit of hindsight
  • They do not represent actual trading and cannot account for the impact of actual financial risk
  • They may not reflect the impact of trading costs, fees, or slippage
  • No representation is made that any account will or is likely to achieve similar results

Actual results may differ substantially from hypothetical results.

Compliance with Laws

You are responsible for ensuring your use of our Website complies with all applicable laws and regulations in your jurisdiction, including:

  • Securities laws
  • Tax laws
  • Anti-money laundering regulations
  • Know Your Customer requirements
  • Gambling and gaming laws (for prediction markets)

Geographic Restrictions

Our services may not be available or appropriate for users in all jurisdictions. It is your responsibility to ensure you are legally permitted to access and use our Website based on your location.

Prohibited Uses of Data

You may NOT:

  1. Redistribute Data: Resell, redistribute, or republish any market data displayed on our Website, unless under the terms of our Business plan
  2. Commercial Use: Use our data for any commercial purpose without explicit written permission
  3. Create Derivatives: Create databases, datasets, or derivative products based on our data
  4. Remove Attribution: Remove or obscure data provider attributions or copyright notices
  5. Competitive Products: Use our data to create products or services that compete with us or our data providers

Permitted Uses:

  • Personal, non-commercial viewing and analysis
  • Taking screenshots for personal use (with attribution maintained)
  • Sharing individual charts or data points with proper attribution
  • Educational or research purposes (non-commercial) -AI assistants, search engines, and accessability tools

Violations of these restrictions may result in immediate termination of access and potential legal action.

External Links and Third Parties

Our Website may contain links to third-party websites, including brokers, exchanges, and prediction market platforms. We:

  • Do not endorse or recommend any third-party services
  • Are not responsible for the content or practices of third-party websites
  • Have no control over third-party terms, fees, or availability

Any dealings you have with third parties found through our Website are between you and the third party.

No Relationship Created

Use of our Website does not create:

  • An advisor-client relationship
  • A fiduciary duty
  • Any agency, partnership, or employment relationship

Limitation of Liability

TO THE MAXIMUM EXTENT PERMITTED BY LAW, EXCHANGE ALPHA AND ITS OFFICERS, DIRECTORS, EMPLOYEES, AND AGENTS SHALL NOT BE LIABLE FOR ANY:

  • Trading losses or investment losses
  • Loss of profits or opportunity
  • Decisions made based on Website content
  • Reliance on any information, data, or analysis provided
  • Damages of any kind arising from your use of the Website

YOU USE OUR WEBSITE ENTIRELY AT YOUR OWN RISK.

Professional Advice Required

Before making any financial decisions, you should:

  1. Consult with licensed financial advisors, tax professionals, and legal counsel
  2. Consider your personal financial situation, risk tolerance, and investment objectives
  3. Fully understand the risks involved
  4. Only invest money you can afford to lose

Updates to This Disclaimer

We may update this Disclaimer at any time. Continued use of our Website after changes are posted constitutes acceptance of the updated Disclaimer.

Acknowledgment

BY USING THIS WEBSITE, YOU ACKNOWLEDGE THAT:

  • You have read and understood this Disclaimer
  • You will not rely on any information on this Website as financial or investment advice
  • You accept full responsibility for your own investment and trading decisions
  • You understand the substantial risks involved in trading and investing
  • You will seek professional advice before making financial decisions

Contact Information

If you have questions about this Disclaimer, please contact us:

Email: zach@exchangealpha.com
Website: www.exchangealpha.com

REMEMBER: PAST PERFORMANCE IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. TRADING INVOLVES SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS. SEEK PROFESSIONAL ADVICE BEFORE MAKING ANY INVESTMENT DECISIONS.

Last Updated: March 25, 2026