Polymarket runs weekly ladders on whether NVDA touches $212 or TSLA falls to $405. We checked 175 of those calls against 15-minute candle data, and published the dataset. Above 70% the market is honest. Below 65% it's barely better than a coin flip.
Read articleJuly 22, 2026Most election maps are one analyst guessing. Ours is different: every 2026 Senate race and all 435 House districts, priced live by the traders on Kalshi and Polymarket who put money behind their call.
Read articleJune 24, 2026Strategy holds about $51.7B of Bitcoin against a $32B market cap. It looks like free money. It is not, and the way it is wrong is the most interesting thing about the trade.
Read articleMay 8, 2026Twelve strange documents from eighty years of declassified UFO reports: Socorro, the Hottel Memo, the RAF Mosquito chase, and more from a federal archive of flying disc reports that were filed but never solved.
Read articleApril 22, 2026The head of the Federal Reserve is one of the most powerful people in the world. Here's why Trump's pick of Kevin Warsh, and the independence of the Fed, affects every American.
Read articleApril 13, 2026Your finance terminal just got a brand new source of data. Through Polymarket and Kalshi, see the entire macroeconomic picture: recession odds, interest rates, acquisitions, and IPOs.
Read articleMarch 31, 2026The real reason markets are down is not the war or oil, it's interest rates. A look at what prediction markets are telling us about inflation, central banks, and the path forward.
Read articleMarch 21, 2026Prediction markets are a tool to help you stay informed, without the bias everyday media employs. Learn how they work, why they are accurate, and the platforms behind them.
Read articleMarch 1, 2026What "buy the rumor, sell the news" really means, why the stock market predicts the future, and how prediction markets let you ride the trend instead of holding the bag.
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