2026 Governor Race Odds

Of the 36 governor races on the 2026 ballot, Democrats are favored in 22 and Republicans in 14, with 0 toss-ups. Adding the 14 governors elected in other years, that projects to 28 Democratic and 22 Republican governors.

Every 2026 governor race, ranked from closest to safest and priced live by prediction markets: each race blends Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US prices in proportion to trading volume. Click a race for the per-venue breakdown, or see it on the interactive 2026 midterms map.

RaceLeaderRunner-upRating
Georgia GovernorKeisha Lance Bottoms (D) 61%Rick Jackson (R) 39%Lean Democrat
Texas GovernorGreg Abbott (R) 66%Gina Hinojosa (D) 34%Lean Republican
Kansas GovernorTy Masterson (R) 74%Cindy Holscher (D) 26%Lean Republican
Florida GovernorByron Donalds (R) 75%David Jolly (D) 25%Lean Republican
Ohio GovernorAmy Acton (D) 77%Vivek Ramaswamy (R) 23%Lean Democrat
Vermont GovernorPhil Scott (R) 78%Amanda Janoo (D) 23%Lean Republican
Nevada GovernorAaron Ford (D) 78%Joe Lombardo (R) 23%Lean Democrat
Wisconsin GovernorDavid Crowley (D) 79%Tom Tiffany (R) 21%Lean Democrat
Oregon GovernorTina Kotek (D) 81%Christine Drazan (R) 19%Safe Democrat
Nebraska GovernorJim Pillen (R) 82%Lynne Walz (D) 18%Safe Republican
Iowa GovernorRob Sand (D) 84%Zach Lahn (R) 17%Safe Democrat
Alaska GovernorDemocrat 87%Republican 14%Safe Democrat
Oklahoma GovernorMike Mazzei (R) 88%Cyndi Munson (D) 11%Safe Republican
Arizona GovernorKatie Hobbs (D) 89%Andy Biggs (R) 11%Safe Democrat
Michigan GovernorJocelyn Benson (D) 92%John James (R) 8%Safe Democrat
Tennessee GovernorMarsha Blackburn (R) 93%Jerri Green (D) 7%Safe Republican
New Mexico GovernorDeb Haaland (D) 94%Gregg Hull (R) 6%Safe Democrat
New Hampshire GovernorKelly Ayotte (R) 94%Cinde Warmington (D) 6%Safe Republican
Alabama GovernorTommy Tuberville (R) 94%Doug Jones (D) 6%Safe Republican
New York GovernorKathy Hochul (D) 95%Bruce Blakeman (R) 5%Safe Democrat
Minnesota GovernorAmy Klobuchar (D) 95%Lisa Demuth (R) 5%Safe Democrat
Rhode Island GovernorHelena Foulkes (D) 95%Ken Block (I) 6%Safe Democrat
Massachusetts GovernorMaura Healey (D) 95%Michael Minogue (R) 4%Safe Democrat
Maine GovernorHannah Pingree (D) 95%Robert Charles (R) 5%Safe Democrat
South Carolina GovernorAlan Wilson (R) 96%Jermaine Johnson (D) 4%Safe Republican
Connecticut GovernorNed Lamont (D) 96%Ryan Fazio (R) 4%Safe Democrat
California GovernorXavier Becerra (D) 96%Steve Hilton (R) 4%Safe Democrat
Illinois GovernorJB Pritzker (D) 97%Darren Bailey (R) 4%Safe Democrat
South Dakota GovernorLarry Rhoden (R) 97%Dan Ahlers (D) 3%Safe Republican
Colorado GovernorPhil Weiser (D) 97%Victor Marx (R) 3%Safe Democrat
Pennsylvania GovernorJosh Shapiro (D) 97%Stacy Garrity (R) 3%Safe Democrat
Arkansas GovernorSarah Huckabee Sanders (R) 97%Fredrick Love (D) 2%Safe Republican
Idaho GovernorBrad Little (R) 98%Terri Pickens (D) 2%Safe Republican
Wyoming GovernorEric Barlow (R) 98%Kenneth Casner (D) 2%Safe Republican
Hawaii GovernorJosh Green (D) 98%Gary Cordery (R) 2%Safe Democrat
Maryland GovernorWes Moore (D) 98%Dan Cox (R) 2%Safe Democrat

Odds as of October 28, 2026 at 1:29 AM ET. They refresh hourly.

How to read these odds

Each percentage is the market price of a contract that pays out if that candidate wins, so it reads as the chance traders give them. A race at 50 percent is a coin flip. Safe means the leader is at 80 percent or more, Lean means 60 to 80 percent, and anything closer is a toss-up, the same buckets the map uses.

Prediction market map of the 2026 midterms 2026 Senate Election Odds 2026 House Election Odds