2026 Senate Election Odds: Who Will Win the Senate?
Democrats are favored to win the Senate: prediction markets give Democrats a 64% chance of control against 37% for Republicans, as of October 28, 2026 at 1:29 AM ET. Counting the 65 seats outside this year's ballot, Democrats are favored in 52 seats and Republicans in 47, with 1 toss-up. 51 seats win control.
Every 2026 Senate race, ranked from closest to safest and priced live by prediction markets: each race blends Kalshi, Polymarket and Polymarket US prices in proportion to trading volume. Click a race for the per-venue breakdown, or see it on the interactive 2026 midterms map.
| Race | Leader | Runner-up | Rating |
|---|---|---|---|
| Iowa Senate | Ashley Hinson (R) 56% | Josh Turek (D) 43% | Toss-up |
| Kansas Senate | Roger Marshall (R) 61% | Adam Hamilton (D) 40% | Lean Republican |
| Maine Senate | Troy Jackson (D) 61% | Susan Collins (R) 39% | Lean Democrat |
| Texas Senate | James Talarico (D) 66% | Ken Paxton (R) 34% | Lean Democrat |
| Ohio Senate | Sherrod Brown (D) 68% | Jon Husted (R) 32% | Lean Democrat |
| Michigan Senate | Abdul El-Sayed (D) 68% | Mike Rogers (R) 33% | Lean Democrat |
| Nebraska Senate | Pete Ricketts (R) 73% | Dan Osborn (I) 28% | Lean Republican |
| Alaska Senate | Mary Peltola (D) 73% | Dan Sullivan (R) 28% | Lean Democrat |
| South Carolina Senate | Darline Graham Nordone (R) 78% | Annie Andrews (D) 22% | Lean Republican |
| Minnesota Senate | Peggy Flanagan (D) 83% | Michele Tafoya (R) 17% | Safe Democrat |
| Mississippi Senate | Cindy Hyde-Smith (R) 88% | Scott Colom (D) 12% | Safe Republican |
| New Hampshire Senate | Chris Pappas (D) 88% | John E. Sununu (R) 13% | Safe Democrat |
| Florida Senate | Ashley Moody (R) 89% | Angie Nixon (D) 11% | Safe Republican |
| Louisiana Senate | Julia Letlow (R) 90% | Jamie Davis (D) 10% | Safe Republican |
| Montana Senate | Kurt Alme (R) 92% | Seth Bodnar (I) 7% | Safe Republican |
| Georgia Senate | Jon Ossoff (D) 94% | Mike Collins (R) 5% | Safe Democrat |
| Arkansas Senate | Tom Cotton (R) 95% | Hallie Shoffner (D) 6% | Safe Republican |
| Idaho Senate | Jim Risch (R) 95% | Todd Achilles (I) 4% | Safe Republican |
| South Dakota Senate | Mike Rounds (R) 95% | Brian Bengs (I) 5% | Safe Republican |
| North Carolina Senate | Roy Cooper (D) 96% | Michael Whatley (R) 4% | Safe Democrat |
| Tennessee Senate | Bill Hagerty (R) 96% | Marquita Bradshaw (D) 4% | Safe Republican |
| Kentucky Senate | Andy Barr (R) 97% | Charles Booker (D) 4% | Safe Republican |
| New Mexico Senate | Ben Ray Luján (D) 97% | Larry Marker (R) 3% | Safe Democrat |
| New Jersey Senate | Cory Booker (D) 97% | Justin Murphy (R) 3% | Safe Democrat |
| Oklahoma Senate | Kevin Hern (R) 98% | N’Kiyla “Jasmine” Thomas (D) 3% | Safe Republican |
| Colorado Senate | John Hickenlooper (D) 98% | Mark Baisley (R) 2% | Safe Democrat |
| Virginia Senate | Mark Warner (D) 98% | Bert Mizusawa (R) 2% | Safe Democrat |
| West Virginia Senate | Shelley Moore Capito (R) 98% | Rachel Fetty Anderson (D) 2% | Safe Republican |
| Alabama Senate | Barry Moore (R) 98% | Everett Wess (D) 2% | Safe Republican |
| Illinois Senate | Juliana Stratton (D) 98% | Don Tracy (R) 2% | Safe Democrat |
| Delaware Senate | Chris Coons (D) 98% | Michael Katz (R) 3% | Safe Democrat |
| Massachusetts Senate | Ed Markey (D) 98% | John Deaton (R) 2% | Safe Democrat |
| Rhode Island Senate | Jack Reed (D) 99% | Raymond McKay (R) 2% | Safe Democrat |
| Wyoming Senate | Harriet Hageman (R) 99% | James W. Byrd (D) 1% | Safe Republican |
| Oregon Senate | Jeff Merkley (D) 99% | David Brock Smith (R) 2% | Safe Democrat |
Odds as of October 28, 2026 at 1:29 AM ET. They refresh hourly.
How to read these odds
Each percentage is the market price of a contract that pays out if that candidate wins, so it reads as the chance traders give them. A race at 50 percent is a coin flip. Safe means the leader is at 80 percent or more, Lean means 60 to 80 percent, and anything closer is a toss-up, the same buckets the map uses.
Prediction market map of the 2026 midterms 2026 House Election Odds 2026 Governor Race Odds Senate control odds by venue